2nd Look at Housing Markets in July

CALCULATEDRISK

Early Reports Suggest Possible New Cycle Low for NAR reported Sales in July

By Bill McBride

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to July 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at local markets in July. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 7.06% and 6.92%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).

Active Inventory in July

Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets.

Inventory was up 51.4% year-over-year. Last month inventory in these markets was up 49.8% YoY. A key will be how much inventory builds over the next couple of months.

Inventory is down in most of these areas compared to 2019. Inventory continues to surge in Florida!

Notes for all tables:

  1. New additions to tables in BOLD.
  2. Northwest (Seattle), Jacksonville Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®
  3. Totals do not include Atlanta (included in state total)
  4. Comparison to 2019 ONLY includes local markets with available 2019 data!

New Listings in July

And here is a table for new listings in July (some areas don’t report new listings). For these areas, new listings were up 13.9% year-over-year.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 8.0% year-over-year.

New listings are now up year-over-year, but still at historically low levels. New listings in all of these areas are down compared to July 2019 activity, except Jacksonville.

Closed Sales in July

And a table of July sales.

In July, sales in these markets were up 4.8% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were down 10.9% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were two more working days in July 2024 compared to July 2023 (22 vs 20), so seasonally adjusted sales will be much lower than the NSA data suggests. This is the opposite of what happened in June.

Sales in all of these markets are down significantly compared to July 2019.

This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis. The NAR reported sales in July 2023 were 4.05 million SAAR.

This data suggests that the July existing home sales report will be close sales in June 2024, seasonally adjusted, and a year-over-year decline from July 2023. The cycle low was 3.85 million SAAR in October 2023, and sales in July might set a new cycle low.

Many more markets to come!