Fortune and Inman News
High housing prices have been seen as a key inflationary driver over the past few months, and the direction that market takes now could be yet another indicator of where the economy is heading.
The U.S. housing market is in a clear cooling-off period, and has likely been for months. When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation last spring, the housing market was one of the first industries to react. Monthly payments are critical in housing, and the Fed’s policy caused mortgage rates to soar, reducing demand and slowing the growth in sky-high pandemic-era home prices.
The rapid increase in mortgage rates combined with a slowdown in new home construction means that it is possible the housing market has already reversed and entered a recession.
But a contraction in the housing market may not necessarily look like a collapse, with some analysts predicting that a “soft landing” for real estate—wherein the market enters a cyclical slowdown but does not fall into a severe recession—is not only possible, it’s starting to look like the most likely option.
“Has the U.S. real estate market managed to navigate a soft landing? It sure looks like that to me,” says Michael Simonsen, founder and CEO of housing data research and analysis firm Altos Research, in a video to real estate agents earlier this week.
Simonsen said that the rate of housing inventory growth, the number of homes for sale on the market, has slowed down significantly over the past few weeks; and while slowing housing inventory during the summer is a seasonal trend to be expected, he says that the slowing rate has eclipsed early forecasts.
“Inventory is rising but rising less quickly than it did in the second quarter,” Simonsen said. “For several weeks in a row, inventory has been rising at a slower pace than we projected even a few weeks ago.”
A slowdown in inventory growth over the rest of the summer and into next fall may be tied to higher lumber prices. After a lengthy selloff, lumber prices have started to tick upward this week, rising 15% at market close on Tuesday from last week. When lumber prices rise, new home constructions and renovation projects become more expensive, which can affect both demand and home prices.
But despite the slowing growth in inventory, home prices appear to have barely been affected, according to Simonsen, which could be what steers the housing market towards a soft landing outcome.
If home prices do not start wildly fluctuating again, the chances of a soft landing for the housing market grow, Simonsen said, adding that he has been further encouraged by high employment numbers this month—which threw cold water on predictions that the larger U.S. economy had already fallen into a recession—and a recent decline in mortgage rates to their lowest point since April.
“Current signs don’t show the market changing dramatically from here,” he said. “Mortgage rates have fallen off their highs; employment is super high; people who want to buy are buying. This seems very much like a soft landing.”
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Inman
What crash? A ‘soft landing’ in the U.S. housing market is possible, says real-time data expert Altos Research
In an Aug. 8 video to agents sure to cause a stir, Altos Research founder and CEO Michael Simonsen posits that the worst the industry may face is a contraction, not a crash.
The United States housing market may be headed for a soft landing, not a collapse, according to at least one new analysis of inventory, home price and construction material data.
In an Aug. 8 video to agents sure to cause a stir, Altos Research founder and CEO Michael Simonsen posits that despite sluggish growth in inventory and mortgage rates that until recently were on an upward march, home prices have largely avoided further acceleration, suggesting that, while the housing market may have already dipped into a recession, the worst the industry may face is a contraction, not a crash.
“Has the U.S. housing market managed to enter a soft landing?” Simonsen said in the video. “It sure looks like that.”
Simonson pointed to several metrics including the slowing growth of inventory on the market. While there are currently 32 percent more homes on the market than there were at this point last year, there are still 40 percent fewer than there were in August 2019.
The rate of inventory growth rapidly slowed during the first week of August. In June, the amount of homes increased by 6 to 8 percent per week. In July, they increased between 3 and 4 percent per week. During the first week of August, they increased by less than 1 percent, according to Altos’ data.
“Inventory is rising, but rising less quickly than it did in the second quarter,” Simonsen said. “And also actually less quickly than recent Augusts of the last several years.”
Michael Simonsen. Image: Altos Research
The slowing rate of inventory may be tied to a steep increase in lumber prices, which rose 15 percent at the close of the market on Tuesday compared to last week. High lumber prices make it more expensive for builders to complete housing developments, leading to less new inventory on the market.
Simonsen also pointed to the share of listed homes for sale with price reductions, which shot up as homes sat on the market longer, with the share now at around 37.6 percent nationally. The huge increase came as the market shifted and sellers were caught off guard, with many of them feeling forced to drop their prices at once.
“As the market shifted many sellers were surprised and had to cut their asking prices very quickly, so we had this big, steep increase in price reductions, we went from record lows to the highest number in years,” he said. “I expect that by September the rate of price reductions will have leveled off, though.”
Despite the sharp amount of decreased asking prices and growing share of inventory, home prices have remained strong overall, Simonsen pointed out, which combined with mortgage rates already retreating slightly and the economy at large and labor market staying strong, point to a soft landing for the housing market already playing out.
“Mortgage rates have fallen off their highs, employment is super high, people who want to buy are buying,” he said. “This seems very much like a soft landing to me.”