22 April 2015
Existing-home sales jumped in March to their highest annual rate in 18 months, while unsold inventory showed needed improvement, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Led by the Midwest, all major regions experienced strong sales gains in March and are above their year-over-year sales pace.
Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in March from 4.89 million in February—the highest annual rate since September 2013 (also 5.19 million). Sales have increased year-over-year for six consecutive months and are now 10.4 percent above a year ago, the highest annual increase since August 2013 (10.7 percent). March’s sales increase was the largest monthly increase since December 2010 (6.2 percent).
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market appears to be off to an encouraging start this spring. “After a quiet start to the year, sales activity picked up greatly throughout the country in March,” he said. “The combination of low interest rates and the ongoing stability in the job market is improving buyer confidence and finally releasing some of the sizable pent-up demand that accumulated in recent years.”
Total housing inventory2 at the end of March climbed 5.3 percent to 2.00 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 2.0 percent above a year ago (1.96 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.7 months in February.
The median existing-home price3 for all housing types in March was $212,100, which is 7.8 percent above March 2014. This marks the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains and the largest since February 2014 (8.8 percent).
“The modest rise in housing supply at the end of the month despite the strong growth in sales is a welcoming sign,” adds Yun. “For sales to build upon their current pace, homeowners will increasingly need to be confident in their ability to sell their home while having enough time and choices to upgrade or downsize. More listings and new home construction are still needed to tame price growth and provide more opportunity for first-time buyers to enter the market.”
The percent share of first-time buyers was 30 percent in March, marking the third time since last March that the first-time buyer share was at or above 30 percent. First-time buyers represented 29 percent of all buyers last month; they were 30 percent in March 2014.
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage increased in March for the second consecutive month, rising to 3.77 percent from 3.71 percent in February. Despite the slight increase, the monthly average is still below 4.00 percent for the fourth straight month.
NAR President Chris Polychron, executive broker with 1st Choice Realty in Hot Springs, Ark., says there needs to be additional choices for borrowers looking for safe and secure mortgage products to finance their home purchase. Realtors® urge the U.S. Senate to schedule a vote for the bipartisan Mortgage Choice Act, which passed the U.S. House of Representatives last week.
“This legislation levels the playing field for brokerages with affiliated business agreements by eliminating the 3 percent cap on the calculations of fees and points in the Dodd-Frank Ability-to-Repay/Qualified Mortgage rule,” he said.
All-cash sales were 24 percent of transactions in March, down from 26 percent in February and down considerably from a year ago (33 percent). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in March, unchanged from last month and down from 17 percent in March 2014. Seventy percent of investors paid cash in March.
Distressed sales4—foreclosures and short sales—were 10 percent of sales in March, down from 11 percent in February and 14 percent a year ago. Seven percent of March sales were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value in March (17 percent in February), while short sales were also discounted 16 percent (15 percent in February).
A NAR study released earlier this week revealed that nearly a million formerly distressed owners of prime quality have become re-eligible for Federal Housing Administration or similar financing programs and may have purchased a home again, and an additional 1.5 million are likely to become eligible over the next five years. However, damaged credit and other factors will severely limit the overall number of those being able to return.
Properties typically stayed on the market for a shorter time period in March (52 days) compared to February (62 days), and are also selling slightly faster than a year ago (55 days). Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 165 days in March, while foreclosures sold in 56 days and non-distressed homes took 51 days. Forty percent of homes sold in March were on the market for less than a month.
Single-family home sales rose 5.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million in March from 4.35 million in February, and are now 10.9 percent above the 4.14 million pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $213,500 in March, up 8.7 percent from March 2014.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 11.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 600,000 units in March from 540,000 units in February, and are now 7.1 percent higher than March 2014 (560,000 units). The median existing condo price was $201,400 in March, which is 1.6 percent higher than a year ago.
March existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 6.9 percent to an annual rate of 620,000, and are 1.6 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $240,500, which is 1.6 percent below a year ago.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 10.1 percent to an annual rate of 1.20 million in March, and are now 12.1 percent above March 2014. The median price in the Midwest was $163,600, up 9.7 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the South climbed 3.8 percent to an annual rate of 2.19 million in March, and are now 11.7 percent above March 2014. The median price in the South was $187,900, up 9.3 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West rose 6.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.18 million in March, and are now 11.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $305,000, which is 8.3 percent above March 2014.
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NOTE: For local information, please contact the local association of Realtors® for data from local multiple listing services. Local MLS data is the most accurate source of sales and price information in specific areas, although there may be differences in reporting methodology.
1Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR rebenchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.
Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample—about 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month—and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
2Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).
3The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.
The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.
4Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at Realtor.org.
The Pending Home Sales Index for March will be released April 29, and Existing-Home Sales for April are scheduled for May 21; release times are 10:00 a.m. EDT.
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