CALCULATEDRISK
By Bill McBride
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18%
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased 0.07% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in March.
On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 0.7% in March, down from up 0.8% YoY in February. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in March 2026 is a new cycle low.
The second graph shows the month-over-month (MoM) change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased 0.07% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in March. House prices are under pressure and might turn negative year-over-year sometime in 2026.
Last year, the FMHPI decreased slightly in both April and May, so the year-over-year change next month will likely be about the same as in March.
29 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of March, 29 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.5%), Washington (-2.4%), Maryland (-2.3%), and Colorado (-2.3%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 215 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin with the largest price decline. Note that the top 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida and Texas.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 1.4% YoY in March) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 0.7% YoY in February. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up about the same year-over-year in the March report compared to February.
Since inventory increased in 2025, while sales matched the lowest level since 1995, national house price growth (year-over-year) has slowed and might turn negative sometime in 2026. However, there are significant regional differences.