CALCULATED RISK
Austin Prices Down 11.0% from Peak Seasonally Adjusted
By Bill McBride
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, Black Knight, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.8% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 5.2% in September, from up 4.3% YoY in August. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% in May 2023.
The second graph shows the month-over-month change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted. The index has increased for nine consecutive months after declining MoM for seven consecutive months.
The FMHPI was up 0.8% MoM in September, about the same as the average for the previous four months.
10 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
In August, 10 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-3.1%), Utah (-3.0%), Nevada (-2.3%), and Arizona (-1.8%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 2.6% YoY in August. The FMHPI is suggesting a further YoY increase in the Case-Shiller index.