CALCULATEDRISK
By Bill McBride
The Census Bureau is now mostly caught up on housing starts. They released Start data for February and March today, and April starts will be released on May 21st (just a little later in the month than usual).
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,502,000. This is 10.8 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,356,000 and is 10.8 percent above the March 2025 rate of 1,355,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,032,000; this is 9.7 percent above the revised February figure of 941,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 446,000.Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,356,000. This is 3.0 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,398,000.
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,372,000. This is 10.8 percent below the revised February rate of 1,538,000 and is 7.4 percent below the March 2025 rate of 1,481,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 895,000; this is 3.8 percent below the revised February figure of 930,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 427,000 in March.Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,538,000. This is 11.0 percent above the revised January rate of 1,386,000.
emphasis added
The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).
Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased month-over-month in March. Multi-family starts were up 15% year-over-year in March. Single-family starts (red) increased in March and were up 9% year-over-year.
The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968.
Total housing starts in March were above expectations, however starts in February were weak, and starts for December 2025 and January were revised down significantly.
The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2025 (blue) and 2026 (red).
Total starts were up 10.8% in March compared to March 2025.
Housing Units Under Construction Remains Slightly Elevated
The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
Currently there are 587 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This was up in March compared to February, and 243 thousand below the pandemic peak in June 2022.
Currently there are 677 thousand multi-family units (blue) under construction. This was down from 686 thousand in February. This is 339 thousand below the record set in July 2023 of 1,016 thousand.
Combined, there are 1.264 million units under construction, 451 thousand below the all-time record of 1.715 million set in October 2022.
In the three years prior to the pandemic, there were about 1.1 to 1.2 million housing units under construction – so the current level is still a little elevated.
Comparing Starts and Completions
Below is a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).
These graphs use a 12-month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.
The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. Builders have been completing more multifamily housing units than they have started on a 12-month basis. Multifamily starts have bottomed on a rolling 12-month basis, and completions have topped.
The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single-family home and completion – so the lines are much closer than for multi-family. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.
Builders are now completing slightly more single-family homes than they are starting on a 12-month basis (reducing inventory). Both starts and completions are trending down.
Total housing starts in March were above expectations, however starts in February were weak, and starts for December 2025 and January were revised down significantly, combined.