U.S. Home Value Growth Strong, But Slowing

6 September 2019

U.S. Home Value Growth Strong, But Slowing

RealTrends

U.S. Home Value Growth Strong, but Slowing

Home value appreciation has slowed each month this year and is at its lowest level since 2015.

  • The rate of year-over-year home value growth has fallen in each of the past seven months. The median U.S. home is worth $229,000, up 5.2% from this time last year.
  • Rents grew 1.9% on an annual basis. The median monthly rent in the U.S. is $1,592.
  • For-sale inventory grew 1.3% year-over-year, and new listings are up 5.7% from a year ago.

U.S. home value growth continues to slow, according to the July Zillow® Real Estate Market Report. The rate of annual home value appreciation decreased for the seventh straight month in July.

The typical U.S. home is worth $229,000, up 5.2% from a year ago – this is the smallest annual appreciation since October 2015. Last year at this time, home values rose 7.7% year-over-year. Still, home values are up 0.3% month-over-month, an indication that values are stabilizing after a period of relatively extreme growth rather than headed for a sustained downturn.

Among the 50 largest U.S. markets, home values have grown the most in Salt Lake City (up 9.4% since July 2018), Indianapolis (up 8.1%) and Charlotte (up 7.3%), although growth is slowing in each of these metros. Only New Orleans, Birmingham, and Oklahoma City saw home values appreciate at a greater rate than a year ago.

Home values have fallen year-over-year in California’s San Francisco Bay Area, home to the two most expensive markets in the country. The value of the typical home fell 10.5% in San Jose and 1.1% in San Francisco. A year ago, home values were growing 24% annually in San Jose, a 34.5 percentage point difference.

“As talk builds of a potential recession in the next year or two, housing remains fairly stalwart,” said Zillow Director of Economic Research Skylar Olsen. “The slowing appreciation is ultimately a good sign that the market is adjusting in response to the growing unaffordability of down payments, while low mortgage rates are keeping those with the required savings interested despite softer growth out the gate.

The uptick in the rate of homes coming onto the market – a good and true increase in supply – should be a boon to those inventory-starved home buyers still searching near the close of the home shopping season. While buyers are catching a break, renters have seen prices continue their steady upward climb, presenting yet another obstacle in the quest to save for that down payment.”

The median U.S. rent rose 1.9% year-over-year to $1,592. For the eighth consecutive month, rents rose the most in Phoenix (up 6.1% from a year ago), followed by Las Vegas (up 5.9%). Rents fell in only three of the 50 largest markets – Houston, Buffalo, and Baltimore.

Inventory grew 1.3% annually, reversing four straight months of declines. There are 19,978 more homes for sale than this time last year. New listings drove the inventory growth in July, up 5.7% from a year ago.

Mortgage rates listed on Zillow fell lower in July. Rates ended the month at 3.72%, down 23 basis points from July 1. Zillow’s real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgages site and reflect the most recent changes in the market.

Metropolitan Area Zillow Home Value Index, July 2019 ZHVI Year-over-Year Change, July 2019 ZHVI Year-over-Year Change, July 2018 Zillow Rent Index, July 2019 ZRI Year-over-Year Change, July 2019 Inventory Year-over-Year Change, July 2019
United States $229,000 5.2% 7.7% $1,592 1.9% 1.3%
New York, NY $442,800 3.2% 5.5% $2,279 2.3% 4.8%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA $650,600 0.9% 6.3% $2,599 1.3% 11.3%
Chicago, IL $225,200 2.1% 5.3% $1,615 1.3% 6.9%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX $243,500 5.1% 11.8% $1,439 1.5% 12.3%
Philadelphia, PA $233,300 2.1% 5.3% $1,497 2.5% -4.8%
Houston, TX $206,400 3.4% 6.1% $1,378 -0.5% 5.5%
Washington, DC $407,700 2.1% 3.8% $1,971 2.0% -8.8%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL $284,300 3.2% 8.2% $1,851 2.2% 3.8%
Atlanta, GA $220,300 6.9% 11.8% $1,454 4.1% 8.3%
Boston, MA $463,300 1.9% 6.2% $2,416 2.2% 8.4%
San Francisco, CA $938,100 -1.1% 9.4% $3,166 1.2% 21.5%
Detroit, MI $162,900 4.6% 9.4% $1,211 2.3% 17.4%
Riverside, CA $371,500 3.3% 7.3% $1,907 4.3% -1.6%
Phoenix, AZ $267,500 4.5% 7.7% $1,401 6.1% -2.9%
Seattle, WA $489,500 0.5% 8.7% $2,036 2.4% 14.3%
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN $272,000 4.3% 6.6% $1,494 0.6% 4.9%
San Diego, CA $591,500 1.1% 6.1% $2,519 3.1% 6.0%
St. Louis, MO $167,700 3.5% 5.5% $1,009 1.3% -15.0%
Tampa, FL $216,400 5.0% 10.6% $1,392 3.7% 2.8%
Baltimore, MD $267,100 0.7% 4.9% $1,605 -0.1% -4.0%
Denver, CO $409,200 3.0% 6.7% $1,781 1.5% 26.9%
Pittsburgh, PA $144,700 2.5% 7.3% $1,102 1.8% -15.0%
Portland, OR $396,700 1.5% 5.3% $1,647 0.7% 3.1%
Charlotte, NC $210,600 7.3% 10.2% $1,322 3.5% 6.2%
Sacramento, CA $411,300 2.7% 5.4% $1,788 3.5% 0.8%
San Antonio, TX $195,600 5.0% 5.7% $1,215 0.3% 17.9%
Orlando, FL $240,000 5.1% 9.4% $1,414 3.5% 4.5%
Cincinnati, OH $170,400 5.4% 6.3% $1,145 3.2% -8.3%
Cleveland, OH $147,100 4.2% 6.6% $1,071 4.1% -1.3%
Kansas City, MO $191,900 4.7% 9.5% $1,121 1.0% N/A
Las Vegas, NV $279,100 5.1% 13.6% $1,329 5.9% 53.5%
Columbus, OH $193,800 6.5% 7.9% $1,183 0.6% -3.3%
Indianapolis, IN $167,300 8.1% 9.6% $1,100 1.0% N/A
San Jose, CA $1,144,800 -10.5% 24.0% $3,338 0.5% 32.6%
Austin, TX $312,300 4.7% 6.2% $1,586 2.1% -4.9%
Virginia Beach, VA $229,800 1.5% 2.8% $1,335 1.1% -9.6%
Nashville, TN $255,700 4.0% 9.8% $1,445 1.3% 14.6%
Providence, RI $295,100 3.4% 7.3% $1,427 3.2% -3.7%
Milwaukee, WI $232,500 4.5% 5.2% $1,094 2.5% 15.3%
Jacksonville, FL $214,400 5.5% 10.5% $1,348 3.9% -2.1%
Memphis, TN $141,000 5.1% 8.3% $1,047 4.2% -10.6%
Oklahoma City, OK $148,400 4.0% 2.9% $937 1.8% -11.5%
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY $164,400 5.5% 5.7% $1,087 1.4% -1.2%
Hartford, CT $229,100 0.2% 2.5% $1,334 1.1% -4.4%
Richmond, VA $232,000 4.0% 5.3% $1,323 1.3% N/A
New Orleans, LA $176,000 2.7% 0.0% $1,274 0.5% 0.4%
Buffalo, NY $161,400 4.4% 6.7% $1,015 -0.3% -1.2%
Raleigh, NC $269,100 5.2% 5.6% $1,286 1.0% 0.6%
Birmingham, AL $148,700 6.9% 5.5% $1,058 2.3% -5.9%
Salt Lake City, UT $373,200 9.4% 11.3% $1,494 1.7% 20.3%