National Association of Realtors

Key Highlights

• Nationally, pending home sales decreased 2.8% in January from the prior month.
• Pending home sales were 13% higher from one year ago with all regions showing sales gains.
• The Pending Home Sales Index hit 122.8, an all-time high for January.

WASHINGTON (February 25, 2021) – Pending home sales took a step backward in January as inventory constraints continue to hold back prospective buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The South was the lone region with a modest gain from the month prior, while the other three major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month decreases in January. However, all four areas saw contract transactions increase from a year-over-year standpoint, including two regions reaching double-digit gains, spurring an all-time high for pending home sales in the month of January.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dropped 2.8% to 122.8 in January. Year-over-year, contract signings rose 13.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Pending home sales fell in January because there are simply not enough homes to match the demand on the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “That said, there has been an increase in permits and requests to build new homes.”

There has been a consistent rise in housing permits for single-family homes for eight straight months. According to Yun, this is a good sign that the supply and demand imbalance in the residential real estate market could be easing, as soon as mid-2021.

“There will also be a natural seasonal upswing in inventory in spring and summer after few new listings during the winter months,” he said. “These trends, along with an anticipated ramp-up in home construction will provide for much-needed supply.”

Realtor.com®’s Housing Market Recovery Index, which reveals metro areas where the market has recovered or even exceeded prior trends, showed Austin, Texas; Denver, Colo.; San Antonio, Texas; Riverside, Calif.; and Sacramento, Calif., had enjoyed the most significant recovery as of February 13.

Following a week where January’s existing-home sales increased, Yun noted that pending contracts are a great early indicator for upcoming closed sales, but stressed that the timing of the relationship between existing-home sales and pending home sales may not be in lockstep.

“The two measurements aren’t always perfectly correlated due to varying amounts of time required to close a contract,” Yun said. “This is because a number of fallouts can occur due to a variety of factors, including a buyer not obtaining mortgage financing, a problem with a home inspection, or an appraisal issue.”

The economy is showing promising signs of improvement, according to Yun, especially in light of many millions of Americans already receiving a COVID-19 vaccination. Still, he cautioned that longer-term interest rates will soon rise, partly from the better economic prospects, but also due to rising inflationary expectations and higher budget deficits.

“I don’t foresee mortgage rates jumping to an alarming level, but we should prepare for a rise of at least a decimal point or two,” he said.

January Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The Northeast PHSI fell 7.4% to 101.6 in January, a 9.6% rise from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index declined 0.9% to 113.2 last month, up 8.6% from January 2020.

Pending home sales transactions in the South inched up 0.1% to an index of 151.3 in January, up 17.1% from January 2020. The index in the West dropped 7.8% in January, to 104.6, up 11.5% from a year prior.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20% of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.