‘Signs of deceleration’ bedevil US home prices

Inman News

Home price growth continued to slow in August as buyers expressed trepidation over the economy, despite a healthy supply of inventory and lower mortgage rates

U.S. home prices saw modest gains in August, but continued to slow, improving the potential for greater affordability, housing reports released on Tuesday showed.

Home prices rose 2.3 percent year over year in August 2025 and 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency reported. That was up slightly from the agency’s revised 0 percent change in home prices between June 2025 to July 2025.

Meanwhile, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price NSA Index saw a 1.5 percent annual gain in August, down from 1.6 percent the previous month.

The home price gains fell short of the 3 percent inflation that Americans are dealing with right now. Nearly all of the major metro areas — 19 out of 20 — saw month-over-month home price declines in August, S&P Dow Jones Indices reported, with the exception of Chicago.

“This marks the weakest annual gain in over two years and falls well below the 3 percent inflation rate,” Nicholas Godec, head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.”

Despite inventory still being elevated, buyers have tread cautiously, with economic certainty still on the minds of many Americans.

“While national home prices are still higher than one year ago, signs of deceleration continue to emerge. During August, inventory gains slowed from earlier in the summer, and the pace of new listings declined,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Anthony Smith said in a statement emailed to Inman. “These supply-side headwinds suggest that, even as conditions improve for some buyers, limited turnover and cautious sentiment are keeping price appreciation in check.”

With lower mortgage rates, Americans have an opportunity to buy more affordably now, but, depending on the market, many buyers are still showing trepidation.

“In September, the median price was down seasonally to $415,200. At a 6.2 percent interest rate, a buyer now has a median monthly payment of $2,824, a savings of $271 per month,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement emailed to Inman. 

“That average $271 per month savings could be enough to bring some buyers into the market. But growing economic uncertainty is keeping others on the sidelines,” Sturtevant continued. “The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that lower rates have led to a big increase in refinance activity, but purchase applications have been muted. In a recent survey of real estate agents in the Mid-Atlantic, financial concerns are leading more buyers to back out of deals this fall. Multiple offers are less common and buyers are asking for more concessions.”

Price changes varied widely by region, according to the FHFA’s monthly report. In the Pacific division, seasonally adjusted home prices dropped by 0.8 percent month over month, while they increased by 1.2 percent in the Mid Atlantic. Year over year, prices decreased by 0.6 percent in the Pacific division and grew by 6.3 percent in the Mid Atlantic.

New York City was the metro area with the steepest annual gain at 6.1 percent, followed by Chicago at 5.9 percent. Tampa, Florida, saw the sharpest decline at 3.3 percent year over year, and was followed by Phoenix and Miami, which were both down by 1.7 percent year over year.

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