CALCULATEDRISK
By Bill McBride
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down almost 19%
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.03% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December.
On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 0.7% in December, down from up 1.0% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in December is a new cycle low.
The second graph shows the month-over-month (MoM) change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI increased 0.03% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December. Over the last 6 months, this index has increased at a 0.6% annual rate – essentially unchanged.
House prices are under pressure and might turn negative year-over-year sometime in 2026.
23 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of December, 23 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in Colorado (-3.5%), California (-2.6%), Florida (-2.6%) and Texas (-2.5%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 169 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.
22 of the 30 cities worst performing cities are in Florida, Texas and California.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 0.4% YoY in December) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 1.4% YoY in November. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up slightly less year-over-year in the December report compared to November.
Since inventory increased in 2025, while sales were the lowest since 1995, national house price growth (year-over-year) has slowed and might turn negative sometime in 2026. There are significant regional differences.