Yun: Jobs report points toward future homeownership

National Association of REALTORS

Instant Reaction: Jobs Report, 3 April 2026. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun reacted to the new U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report this morning. Yun says at first glance, it seems that the job market is booming, based on the latest monthly figures showing 178,000 net new job additions in March, but this growth is offsetting the 133,000 job losses in the prior month. Typical annual job gains would be around 2 million, Yun says. Still, “There is a record-high number of workers receiving paychecks in America. For the housing market, that means a record-high number of aspiring homeowners, to the point that the American Dream is eventual ownership.”

The job market is booming—so it seems at first glance from the latest monthly figures showing 178,000 net new job additions in March, but this growth is offsetting the 133,000 job losses in the prior month. The ups and downs in job figures in recent months have resulted in only 260,000 more people working than one year ago. Typical annual job gains would be around 2 million. Somewhat slower job growth should be expected, given job cuts in the federal government and from limited immigration into the country.

The small annual job gain is still a gain, so there is a record-high number of workers receiving paychecks in America. For the housing market, that means a record-high number of aspiring homeowners, to the point that the American Dream is eventual ownership.

There is also a record-high number of construction workers. Perhaps due to a worker shortage in the field, the wage rate in the construction industry is quite good at $40.92 per hour, up 4.3% from a year ago, compared with $37.38, up 3.5%, for overall private-sector jobs. Local schools need to get busy teaching trade skills.

The bottom line is that jobs are coming back, though slowly. The pool of potential homebuyers is growing. Actual homebuyers, however, remain muted due to the recent rise in mortgage rates following the oil price shock. But once the oil price turns lower, then we will see what happens.

Bar graph: Total Payroll Jobs, January 2020 to January 2026
Bar graph: Net Job Gains, January 2021 to March 2026
Line graph: Federal Government Jobs, January 2000 to January 2026
Line graph: Wage Rate vs. Consumer Pricing, January 2019 to January 2026
U.S. Map: One-Year Payroll Job Gains, December 2024 to December 2025
U.S. Map: Job Gains Since Pre-COVID Record-high Payroll Employment, March 2020 to December 2026
Line graph: Oil Price Per Barrel, January 2015 to January 2026
Line graph: Oil Production in the U.S., January 1970 to January 2026

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He supervises and is responsible for a wide range of research activities for the association, including NAR’s Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report. He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends.

Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States, and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has also appeared as a guest on CSPAN’s Washington Journal. In 2025, the Wall Street Journal congratulated him for having one of the closest forecasts for 2024.

Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.

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