By Inman News, Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Home prices fell from September to October in 12 of 20 cities tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index, but the index still posted a 4.3 percent gain for the year with every market but New York showing an annual gain.

“Annual rates of change in home prices are a better indicator of the performance of the housing market than the month-over-month changes because home prices tend to be lower in fall and winter than in spring and summer,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement.

If seasonal factors are taken into account, only three markets saw month-over-month declines: Boston, Chicago and New York.

The non-seasonally adjusted numbers released by the S&P Dow Jones Indices showed monthly price drops in the same seven markets that saw declines from August to September — Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Tampa and Washington D.C. — plus five additional markets: Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Minneapolis and Seattle.

Among markets in the 20-City Composite, Chicago saw the greatest non-seasonally adjusted monthly price decline (-1.5 percent), followed by Boston (-1.4 percent), Dallas (-0.7 percent) and Minneapolis (-0.7 percent). Las Vegas saw the strongest one-month gain with prices up 2.8 percent.

Looking back a year, 19 of 20 markets posted larger annual price gains in October than September.

S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, by market

 

Metro area	October 2012 index level	Change from September to October*	Change from year ago
Atlanta	95.68	-0.4%	4.9%
Boston	155.13	-1.4%	1.6%
Charlotte	115.67	-0.5%	4.1%
Chicago	114.90	-1.5%	-1.3%
Cleveland	101.50	-0.6%	1.8%
Dallas	120.71	-0.7%	4.6%
Denver	134.03	0.0%	6.9%
Detroit	80.07	0.3%	10.0%
Las Vegas	100.14	2.8%	8.4%
Los Angeles	175.85	0.6%	6.2%
Miami	149.97	-0.2%	8.5%
Minneapolis	124.96	-0.7%	9.2%
New York	165.30	-0.4%	-1.2%
Phoenix	122.39	1.4%	21.7%
Portland	142.44	0.9%	5.2%
San Diego	162.10	1.3%	6.0%
San Francisco	144.15	0.7%	8.9%
Seattle	141.82	-0.2%	5.7%
Tampa	134.08	-0.5%	5.9%
Washington	191.01	-0.5%	4.4%
Composite-20	146.08	-0.1%	4.3%

 

* Non-seasonally adjusted. Index value of 100 equals prices in January 2000. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.

All in all, Blitzer said, “it is clear that the housing recovery is gathering strength. Higher year-over-year price gains plus strong performances in the southwest and California, regions that suffered during the housing bust, confirm that housing is now contributing to the economy.”

Many hard hit markets have seen double digit price appreciation from their bottoms, although in some cases remain below the index’s base value of 100, which represents prices in January 2000. An index value of 125, for example represents a 25 percent price gain.

In the metro Detroit area, the index shows home prices have appreciated 24.2 percent from their bottom, but are still 20 percent lower than 12 years ago. In San Francisco, home prices are up 22.5 percent from recent lows and more than 44 percent from January, 2000. In the Washington, D.C. market, home prices have appreciated 91 percent in the last 12 years.