CALCULATEDRISK
By Bill McBride
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 22% from Recent Peak, Austin Down 18%
Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in January.
On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 0.4% in January, down from up 0.8% YoY in December. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in January 2026 is a new cycle low.
The second graph shows the month-over-month (MoM) change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted.
The seasonally adjusted FMHPI decreased 0.13% MoM on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in January. Over the last 9 months, this index has increased at a 0.2% annual rate – essentially unchanged.
House prices are under pressure and might turn negative year-over-year sometime in 2026.
36 States and D.C. have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted
As of January, 36 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in Florida (-3.5%), D.C. (-3.4%), Washington (-2.6%) and California (-2.0%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 263 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.
20 of the 30 cities worst performing cities are in Florida and California.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices (up 0.9% YoY in January) appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 1.3% YoY in December. The FMHPI is suggesting the Case-Shiller index will likely be up slightly less year-over-year in the January report compared to December.
Since inventory increased in 2025, while sales matched the lowest level since 1995, national house price growth (year-over-year) has slowed and might turn negative sometime in 2026. However, there are significant regional differences.