CALCULATEDRISK

18 of the 35 cities with largest price declines are in Florida

Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For house prices, I’m currently following Case-Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic, ICE, the NAR median prices, and this Freddie Mac index.

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.45% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.7% in October, down from up 3.8% YoY in September.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023.

The second graph shows the month-over-month change in the national FMHPI, seasonally adjusted. The index has increased for 21 of the last 22 months after declining MoM for seven consecutive months in 2022.

The FMHPI was up 0.45% MoM in October. Over the last 3 months, this index has increased at a 5.6% annual rate – price growth has picked back up a little recently – and 3.4% annualized over the last 6 months.

8 States have seen price declines Seasonally Adjusted

As of October, 8 states were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Florida (-1.3%), and Texas (-0.6%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 35 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 18 of the 35 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida!

And 5 of the 35 cities on the list are in Texas.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. The Case-Shiller index was up 3.9% YoY in September. The FMHPI is suggesting about the same YoY increase in the Case-Shiller index in October.

As inventory builds, and if sales stay low, house price growth (year-over-year) will slow in early 2025.