S&P/Case-Shiller shows prices off 35.1 percent from peak

By Inman News, Tuesday, May 29, 2012

A national home-price index that captures about 75 percent of U.S. properties in all nine Census divisions showed home prices falling 2 percent during the first quarter to a new post-crisis low.

The S&P/Case-Shiller National Composite is down 35.1 percent from its second-quarter 2006 peak, Standard & Poor’s reported today. Two other S&P Case-Shiller indexes, the 10- and 20-city composites, are also at new lows for the housing downturn, although both were little changed from February to March.

Seven of 20 metros covered by the 20-city composite saw price declines from February to March, compared with 16 in last month’s report. Five — Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York and Portland — are at new lows for the downturn.

“While there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, in a statement.

Blitzer noted some improvement from last month’s report, when nine metros hit new lows. The annual rate of change deteriorated in just three of 20 metros in March: Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit. Seven cities posted annual gains: Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis and Phoenix.

“This is what we need for a sustained recovery: monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change,” Blitzer said. “Once we see this on a broader level we will be able to say the market has turned around.”

S&P/Case Shiller indices March 2012

 

Metro March 2012 index level Change February-March (percent) Change from year ago (percent)
Atlanta

82.53

-0.9%

-17.7%

Boston

145.92

-0.2%

-1.0%

Charlotte

109.40

1.2%

0.4%

Chicago

102.77

-2.5%

-7.1%

Cleveland

94.65

0.4%

-2.4%

Dallas

114.49

1.6%

1.5%

Denver

123.66

1.5%

2.6%

Detroit

66.66

-4.4%

2.3%

Las Vegas

89.87

0.0%

-7.5%

Los Angeles

159.73

0.1%

-4.8%

Miami

140.76

0.9%

2.5%

Minneapolis

109.21

-0.9%

3.3%

New York

157.87

-0.9%

-2.8%

Phoenix

106.38

2.2%

6.1%

Portland

129.01

-0.5%

-2.8%

San Diego

149.68

0.4%

-2.7%

San Francisco

125.94

1.0%

-3.0%

Seattle

131.23

1.7%

-1.3%

Tampa

125.49

1.3%

-1.0%

Washington, D.C.

176.48

1.0%

-0.6%

Composite-10

146.61

-0.1%

-2.8%

Composite-20

134.10

0.0%

-2.6%

National

123.33

-2.0%*

-1.9%

 

*Change from fourth-quarter 2011 to first-quarter 2012. Index has a base value of 100 in January 2000. Source: S&P Indices and Fiserv.

In March 2012, Phoenix posted the largest annual rate of change, 6.1 percent, while home prices in Atlanta fell the most over the year, down 17.7 percent.

The indexes emphasize non-seasonally adjusted figures, although seasonally adjusted figures are also provided for reference.

“Since we are entering a seasonal buying period, it becomes very important to look at both monthly and annual rates of change in home prices in order to understand the broader trend going forward,” Blitzer said.

The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So the national composite’s current index value of 123 translates to a 23 percent appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home.

Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas were the four metros in the 20-city composite where average home prices were below their January 2000 levels.