HousingWire
Regional markets back demand resilience as rate pressure builds. Data shows steady pending sales activity across Texas, California and the Midwest, even as mortgage rates approach levels that have historically slowed demand.
Regional market data is reinforcing the same story playing out nationally: Housing demand is holding up across major metros, even as mortgage rates move closer to levels that have historically pressured activity.
That national backdrop remains surprisingly firm. Weekly pending sales rose to 71,230, up from 68,726 a year ago, while purchase applications are still showing 12% year over year growth. But the margin for error is narrowing as rates rise.
“Typically, mortgage rates above 6.64% and breaking over 7% really impact the data,” HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami wrote in this week’s market tracker.
At the regional level, the data shows that threshold hasn’t been breached in a meaningful way yet.
Texas continues to drive national volume
Texas continues to anchor national demand, with 8,223 new pending sales statewide — the highest volume in the country. Dallas-Fort Worth recorded 2,227 new pendings, essentially flat week over week, while Houston saw 2,025, up 4.3% over the same period. San Antonio added another 907 pending sales.
That consistency matters. Texas has been one of the most reliable drivers of national housing activity, and continued stability there is helping offset softness that might otherwise emerge in a higher-rate environment.
California and the Midwest are holding up
California markets are also showing resilience, even with higher price points and greater sensitivity to mortgage rates. Los Angeles posted 1,112 new pending sales, while Riverside-San Bernardino recorded 888.
Importantly, price reductions remain contained. Just 26.5% of listings in California have seen price cuts, well below national norms and a signal that sellers are not yet being forced into widespread discounting.
The Midwest is standing out as well, driven by relative affordability and tighter inventory conditions. Chicago recorded 1,525 new pending sales, up 2.3% week over week, while Detroit added 994 pending transactions.
These markets are helping stabilize overall housing activity, particularly as higher-cost regions face greater affordability constraints.
What it means if rates move higher
Nationally, pricing trends remain steady. HousingWire data shows 33.8% of listings had price reductions last week, essentially in line with the 34% level from the same time in 2025. That aligns with regional data, suggesting sellers are still finding buyers without needing to significantly reset expectations.
For industry professionals, the takeaway is that demand remains geographically broad and more resilient than mortgage rate levels alone would suggest. Texas continues to drive volume, California is holding firmer than expected, and Midwest markets are providing stability.
Tight inventory and price reductions that remain in line with recent norms are helping transactions continue without a broad reset in pricing.
Regional markets are confirming the national story — demand is holding, supported by constrained supply and disciplined pricing.
This article is based on single-family residence data through March 20, 2026.