Rates are under 6% again with better mortgage spreads and the 10-year yield under 4%
By Logan Mohtashami
Mortgage rates are at multiyear lows, whether you quote Mortgage News Daily at 5.99% or Freddie Mac weekly data at 5.98%. The drop has come at a good time, as the spring housing market is about to start, with more Americans looking to sell their homes and buy another. First-time homebuyers are looking at the lowest rates in years, making it a much better mortgage market than the 7%-8% rate environment we have had to deal with in the last several years.
Mortgage spreads still the hero
The improvement in mortgage spreads has been the most critical factor in rates moving toward a multiyear low. We have had a few times when the 10-year yield was under 4%, but rates weren’t under 6%. If this were 2023, with the worst levels of mortgage spreads, mortgage rates would still be above 7%, and the housing market has a hard time getting traction with rates over 7%.
One of the questions I’ve been getting recently is: Why are mortgage spreads rising lately? Well, the spreads are designed to reduce volatility at this stage, so the fact that the 10-year yield has fallen recently and the spreads are off their yearly lows is pretty normal. Over time, the spreads can improve further, but the best levels I can ever go to are really between 1.60% and 1.80%. This is why in the 2026 HousingWire Forecast I have the low point of mortgage rates being 5.75%.
10 year yield under 4%
Of course, for me personally, it’s always about the slow dance between the 10-year yield and 30 year mortgage rate. The spreads can make that slow dance closer together or wider, but what really drives rates is the bond market, as it has for decades. The 10-year yield under 4% has caught some people off guard recently, especially now with the hot inflation print, but it’s still within the range for 2026, considering the labor market isn’t breaking but not growing in a big fashion.
Conclusion
For the first time in years, mortgage rates are under 6%, inventory is up, the spreads are almost back to normal and prices aren’t rising out of control — it’s a good place to be in the housing market compared to the last several years. Take this victory, go buy and sell some homes.
Logan Mohtashami is a renowned expert in the mortgage and housing ecosystem, recognized for his insightful analysis and commentary on the U.S. economy and real estate market. Mohtashami is a lead analyst for HousingWire and is a regular contributor on the HousingWire Daily podcast. With a background spanning over two decades in the mortgage industry, Mohtashami — nicknamed “Chart Daddy” — has the remarkable ability to decipher complex economic data and translate it into understandable, actionable insights. This knowledge has made Mohtashami a sought-after commentator and his expertise has been featured extensively in news outlets, including CNBC, where he is a frequent guest.