Inman News
Windermere’s Principal Economist Jeff Tucker looks at the economy at large and your local market
by Jeff Tucker
Here are the numbers you should know this month.
$115: the price of a barrel of oil
The first number to know this month: $115. That was the level that the price of a barrel of oil reached on April 7, and it happens to be exactly double the price of oil at the start of 2026.
The war in Iran has dragged on into its second month now, and it’s continuing to cause an energy crisis that’s rippling out through the global economy. An energy shock like this raises the costs of making and transporting almost everything, so the longer this goes on, the more inflationary pain it will inflict this year.
178,000 jobs added
The second number to know this month 178,000. That was the number of jobs added in the economy in March, which would make it the single best month for job gains since late 2024, if it survives the usual rounds of revisions.
If we look at the trend of the past 15 months, though, it’s pointing both toward a slowdown in job gains and increasing month-to-month volatility, as we’ve now swung between job gains and job losses for 11 months in a row. One upshot of this strong jobs report is that it provides further cover for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rate cuts on hold for now — if the labor market isn’t looking too distressed, they don’t need to be rushing to the rescue.
6.5%: mortgage rates
The third number to know this month: 6 and a half percent. That’s the ballpark of where 30-year mortgage rates are now bouncing around, after jumping almost half a point from multi-year lows they reached just back in late February.
The combination of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy triggered by the war in Iran has set interest rates back up to where they were last summer and, frankly, into the range of where they stood last spring. This is undermining homebuyer demand in what should be the busy spring buying season, leading instead to more balanced conditions in the housing market.
964,000 active listings
Finally, turning to the housing market, we saw 964,000 active listings at the end of March — somewhat more than at this time in 2020 and about 8 percent more than last year.
That 8 percent year-over-year gain basically matches what I reported in February, bringing an end to a trend of decelerating inventory growth since last May. It’s a little early to call this a turning point, but it may be an indication that inventory gains are picking back up.
If that continues, buyers could really see a plethora of options on the market this summer. In the meantime, sellers should be aware that buyers are comparison-shopping, so it still pays to put your best foot forward, listing with an agent you trust, even in the busy spring selling season right now.
As Principal Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Jeff Tucker analyzes economic data to explain its impact on national and regional housing markets. His insights and analysis empower real estate professionals and consumers to make informed decisions. Jeff has 10 years of professional experience as an economist, including over 5 years at Zillow, as well as Amazon, AirDNA, and in economic consulting. While at Zillow, Jeff researched housing market trends, authored economic outlook reports for the Board of Directors, presented to policy makers like the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and served as media spokesperson for the economic research team. Jeff received his B.A. in Economics from Amherst College and his M.A. in Economics from the University of Washington.