National Association of REALTORS

By: Lawrence Yun

Getting the existing-home market back in balance is a delicate task.

While real estate brokers and agents face the lowest level of home sales in nearly 30 years, home builders recently recorded their best performance since the Great Recession of 2008. Compared to 2019, home builders in 2023 had 40% more inventory. In contrast, the existing-home inventory in established neighborhoods in 2023 saw 40% fewer listings vis-à-vis 2019. That’s why lingering multiple offers have continued and home prices keep setting new record highs.

Welcoming news for buyers is that inventory is finally rising. There were 15% more listings this spring than a year ago. But home sales have not increased—at least not yet. Stubbornly higher mortgage rates have hindered affordability.

Calming consumer price inflation, from the cyclical peak of 9% two years ago to a 3.3% rise in May, will help the Fed to move away from its high restrictive interest rate policy over time.

To better assure that the incoming supply of homes is for owner occupants, some states are considering policies to push back against Wall Street–funded institutional investors. An excise tax or non-deductibility of interest expense is being considered for big players—say those buying 200 or more single-family rental properties.

Not everyone can or desires to own a home. But the country should abhor the prospect of transitioning to a renter nation. A majority renter society leads to bad policies, such as rent control. Some extreme activists seek no-eviction policies, even in scenarios where rents are not being paid. A better policy for those in need is a rental subsidy—just as hunger is best addressed with food stamps, not food price controls. One has only to look to Venezuela, where similar policies have contributed to an ongoing economic crisis.

Record High Median Price

The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $419,300, the highest price ever recorded and an increase of 5.8% from one year ago ($396,500). All four U.S. regions registered price gains.

Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. He supervises and is responsible for a wide range of research activity for the association including NAR’s Existing Home Sales statistics, Affordability Index, and Home Buyers and Sellers Profile Report. He regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1.4 million REALTORS®.

Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, among them the Blue Chip Council and the Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey. He also participates in the Industrial Economists Discussion Group at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. He appears regularly on financial news outlets, is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States, and has testified before Congress. Dr. Yun has also appeared as a guest on CSPAN’s Washington Journal.

Dr. Yun received his undergraduate degree from Purdue University and earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park.