30 September 2013
Pending home sales slowed in August, with tight inventory conditions, higher interest rates, rising home prices and continuing restrictive mortgage credit impacting the market, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, eased 1.6 percent to 107.7 in August from a downwardly revised 109.4 in July, but remains 5.8 percent above August 2012 when it was 101.8; the data reflect contracts but not closings. Pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 28 months.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the decline was expected following elevated levels of closed existing-home sales at the end of summer. “Sharply rising mortgage interest rates in the spring motivated buyers to make purchase decisions, culminating in a six-and-a-half-year peak for sales that were finalized last month,” he says. “Moving forward, we expect lower levels of existing-home sales, but tight inventory in many markets will continue to push up home prices in the months ahead.”
The PHSI in the Northeast rose 4.0 percent to 84.8 in August, and is 5.1 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest, the index declined 1.4 percent to 111.6 in August, but is 13.8 percent higher than August 2012. Pending home sales in the South fell 3.5 percent to an index of 116.9 in August, but are 3.7 percent above a year ago. The index in the West declined 1.6 percent in August to 106.9, but is 1.7 percent higher than August 2012.
Although total existing-home sales this year will be up about 11 percent to nearly 5.2 million, little change is seen in 2014, with sales forecast to increase less than 1 percent. The national median existing-home price should rise 11 to 12 percent for all of 2013, easing to an increase of 5 to 6 percent next year, with general improvement expected in inventory supplies.