October 5, 2010
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 4.3% to 82.3 based on contracts signed in August 2010 from a downwardly revised 78.9 in July, but is 20.1% below August 2009 when it was 103.0. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the latest data is consistent with a gradual improvement in home sales in upcoming months. “Attractive affordability conditions from very low mortgage interest rates appear to be bringing buyers back to the market,” he said. “However, the pace of a home sales recovery still depends more on job creation and an accompanying rise in consumer confidence.”
Although Yun expects a continuing steady rise in home sales from favorable affordability conditions and some job creation, he cautioned any sudden rise in mortgage rates could slow the recovery. “Current low consumer price inflation has helped keep mortgage interest rates very attractive this year. However, recent rising trends in producer prices at the intermediate and early stages of production, along with very high commodity prices, are raising concerns about future inflation and future mortgage interest rates,” he said. “Higher inflation would mean higher mortgage interest rates. In the meantime, housing affordability is hovering near record highs.”
The PHSI in the Northeast declined 2.9% to 60.6 in August and remains 28.8% below August 2009. In the Midwest, the index rose 2.1% in August to 68.0 but is 26.5% below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South increased 6.7% to an index of 90.8 but are 13.1% below August 2009. In the West, the index rose 6.4% to 101.1 but remains 19.6% below a year ago.