27 January 2014
Ongoing improvements show economic stabilization, with 87 markets reaching full recovery and housing market price gains nearing 2005 records
Homes.com, a leading online real estate destination and a division of Dominion Enterprises, has released its November Local Market Index, a price performance summary of repeat sales of U.S. properties. Utilizing home pricing data, the Index shows year-over-year gains for single-family properties in all 300 top U.S. markets.
To provide insight into local sector housing trends across the country, Homes.com publishes the Local Market Index for the Top 100 markets and the companion Midsize Markets Report for defined areas ranked from 101-300. Month-over-month increases in index values were seen in 235 of the top 300 markets, down from 253 the previous month. This downtrend is likely due to both seasonal trends and the state of recovery for these markets.
As a complement to the Local Market Index, Homes.com publishes an exclusive Rebound Report, highlighting how the housing recovery process is unfolding across the country. It measures each market’s peak-to-trough decline in index value, which had been attributed to the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble.
While the number of top 100 markets achieving a full recovery is up two from the previous month, to 28, there is also noticeable improvement in the number of midsize markets seeing full recovery. This month, 59 of the top 200 midsize markets have fully recovered their loss in home prices due to the housing bubble burst. These advancements bring the total markets that have seen a full recovery to 87 (29%), up one from the previous month’s 86.
All of the 200 midsize local markets measured continued to show gains year-over-year for the single-family index. On a monthly basis, Rocky Mount, N.C. saw the largest gain, with a 3.05 index point jump. For the sixth consecutive month, Anchorage, Alaska and Hilo, Hawaii continue to be the top two performing markets on a year-over-year basis. Anchorage takes the top spot, increasing by nearly 20 percent, followed by Hilo with a more than 15 percent increase. The west continues to dominate the midsize markets, with all 10 of the top 10 markets increasing on an annual basis and with year-over-year index point gains. On a monthly basis, the top 10 midsize markets are largely split between the south and west regions.
“This year will continue to bring good news, with numerous markets providing opportunities for consumers to take advantage of improvements as they consider buying and selling decisions. Markets in the west and heartland area continue to lead the pack, but encouraging signs in the southeast and northeast prove the market continues the steady climb towards recovery,” said Brock MacLean, executive vice president of Homes.com. “With the gains we continue to see in local markets year to date, we should close out 2013 with year over year price gains nearing 2005 levels.”
The latest Homes.com Local Market Index reports the following:
• Year-over-year increases in all top 300 markets.
• Monthly increases in 85 of the top 100 markets and in 150 of the 200 midsized markets.
• Honolulu, Hawaii remains the top gaining market on a year-over-year basis, with a 28.23 index point or 12.62 percent increase.
• California markets [Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.; San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif.; Bakersfield-Delano, Calif.] are the remaining 4 in the top 5. Year-over-year, they increased 28.22, 26.68, 25.58 and 21.83 index points, respectively.
• Of the top 10 yearly gaining markets in the top 100 markets, eight are in the west.
Highlights from the Homes.com Rebound Report for the top 300 markets show:
• 87 have made a 100 percent rebound, indicating a complete recovery in these markets. This is an increase from 84 markets in the previous reporting period.
• Midsize markets lead the pack in areas that are recovering; out of the 87 markets to achieve more than 100 percent rebound this month, 59 are midsize.
• The three newest markets to achieve a full rebound are Greensboro-High Point, NC, Ogden-Clearfield, UT, and Peoria, IL.
• Of the remaining non-recovered markets, 161 (54%) show more than a 50 percent rebound, up from 158 (52%) markets in the previous month.
• 92 percent (80) of the 87 fully rebounded markets reported month-over-month gains. Average month over month increases for all recovered markets was 1.67 percent, compared to a 2 percent gain in non-recovered markets. This illustrates the leveling of home prices in recovered markets.
• 22 markets were not affected by the boom-bust scenario of the U.S. housing bubble.
These markets did not experience the same peak-to-trough decline displayed by the remaining 278 markets. All of these markets are midsize markets, with half from the state of Texas and 73 percent from energy-producing areas. They include: Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas; Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Texas; Shreveport-Bossier City, La.; Anchorage, Alaska; Fayetteville, N.C.; Charleston, W.Va.; Lubbock, Texas; Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; Waco, Texas; College Station-Bryan, Texas; Longview, Texas; Tyler, Texas; Fargo, N.D.-Minn.; Jacksonville, N.C.; Monroe, La.; Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa; Abilene, Texas; Iowa City, Iowa; Wichita Falls, Texas; Sioux City, Iowa-Neb.-S.D.; and Midland, Texas.
The Homes.com Local Market Index (Top 100) for November 2013 can be downloaded here.
The Homes.com Local Market Index Midsize Markets Report can be downloaded here.
The Homes.com Rebound Report for November 2013 can be downloaded here.
The rebound percentages for the top 300 markets in November 2013 values can be viewed here.
Various tables and graphs included in the report can be downloaded here.
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